PSDRV - Probability Basics Lesson
Probability Basics Lesson
There are two major types of probability: theoretical and empirical. Theoretical probability is the result that is expected to occur by pure chance and is sometimes called "classical probability." Empirical probability is the statistical result of an experiment that determines outcomes. An easy way to remember the difference is "E" for Empirical and "E" for Experiment
The Law of Large Numbers is one of the two major theorems in all of statistics. The law states that in the long run, as a sample size gets larger and larger, the relative frequencies of outcomes get closer and closer to the theoretical (actual) probability.
Here is a pretend experiment:
Flip a coin 10 times—record the results
Flip a coin 20 times—record the results
Flip a coin 50 times—record the results
Most likely the results from flipping the coin 50 times is getting closer to the theoretical probability that heads will occur 50 % of the time and tails will occur 50% of the time. For an even better estimate simply increase the number of attempts or trials. As the experiment is repeated over and over and over, the empirical probability of an event "approaches" the theoretical probability. Over and over and over suggests an abstract attempt at infinite trials.
In Your Notebook: Please take down important notes, such as formulas, and attempt the practice examples on your own before viewing the solutions!
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