The demographictransition is a gradual shift in birth and death rates from the primitive (pre-developing) to the modern condition (developed) in industrialized societies.
The demographic transition model combines our knowledge of birth rates, growth rates, age-structure pyramids with our knowledge of social and economic characteristics of populations to predict and describe the process a human goes through on the way to becoming a developed country.
This illustration shows 5 stages, but stage 5 is a prediction - we have not yet seen a country in stage 5 of the demographic transition, so for the purpose of our study, we will focus on stages 1-4.
The demographic transition refers to the transition from high to lower birth and death rates in a country or region as development occurs and that country moves from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system.
Please explore the interactive below to learn more about the first four stages of the demographic transition. Where do you think the United States falls on the demographic transition?
The demographic transition is typically demonstrated through a four-state demographic transition model (DTM).
Developing vs. Developed Countries
Developed countries are those countries that are highly developed, industrialized, and have high incomes. Developing countries consist of two different types of countries: underdeveloped and developing. Explore the tabs below to see how developed and developing countries differ in key aspects:
Developed countries are generally richer and more industrialized than developing countries. They have higher standards of living, education, and technology. Developing countries are generally poorer and less industrialized than developed countries.
Developing
Developing countries consist of two different types of countries: underdeveloped and developing.
Underdeveloped countries have per capita incomes of less than $765. Examples of low-income countries are Niger, Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Chad, Ethiopia, and Papua New Guinea. Around 1.3 billion people live in these countries. These countries are 37% of the global population, but only 3% of the wealth. People in these countries tend to not be very well educated and the birth rates tend to be high, and the death rates tend to be high as well.
In developing countries, the per capita income is between $766 and $9385. Forty-five percent of people in developing countries are unable to afford adequate food, shelter, or clothing. About 4.25 billion people, or over half of the people on the planet, live in moderately developed countries. Examples of middle-income countries are Mexico, Russia, Brazil, China, the Philippines, Chile, and Saudi Arabia. These countries have characteristics in between high- and low-income countries.
The graph below shows the life expectancy vs. GDP of several of these countries from 1990 to 2021. You can see that China's per capita GDP increased from $1424 to $17,603 in that time, which increased their life expectancy by almost 10 years.
These countries have high birth rates which translate into high fertility rates (average: 2.8). The high birth rates and death rates also mean that these populations have shorter doubling times. In fact, 98% of population growth is occurring in developing countries. The graph below shows the relationship between birth and death rate in these countries from 1950 to 2021:
Developed
Developed countries are those countries that are highly developed, industrialized, and have high incomes. Countries are considered developed if they have a per capita income of $9386 or greater. Examples of developed countries are the United States, Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland and Germany. Just over 1 billion people live in developed countries. These countries are 15% of the global population but 80% of the wealth. You can see in the graph below that these countries are at the very top of the per capita GDP, and tend to have higher life expectancies as well:
People in these countries tend to be more educated, and thus, have lower birth rates and death rates. These low birth rates translate to low fertility rates (average: 1.6) as well. These low birth and death rates translate into longer doubling times. The graph below shows the relationship between birth and death rate in these countries from 1950 to 2021. You can see that the birth and death rates for the developed countries have stayed near the bottom of the graph during this time:
Healthcare
Access to healthcare varies between developed and developing countries. In general, developed countries have better access to modern healthcare.
Developing
Individuals in developing countries have less access to modern healthcare methods and technologies, increasing the death rate. In the graph below, you can see the healthcare access for our exemplar developing countries. Notice that Somalia is not shown - there is not enough data for Somalia to be on the graph:
Few women have access to contraceptives. Many women are married at a young age and have little control over their reproductive choices. Both of these factors increase the birth rate in developing countries. Look at the graph below, which compares the fertility rate to contraceptive prevalence in our developing exemplars between 1961 and 2021. As you can see, many countries are trending towards more contraceptive use, which is reducing the fertility rate. However, many countries, especially those in Africa (purple) still have high fertility rates - some approaching 8!
Developed
The increased industrialization and GDP of developed countries allow them to spend more money on healthcare - doctors, clinics, medicines, equipment, and hospitals. This investment in healthcare improves life expectancy and decreases maternal and infant mortality. It also reduces the prevalence of infectious and chronic diseases. Those individuals who suffer from these maladies usually have easy access to treatment. In the graph below, you can see the healthcare access for our exemplar developed countries. Notice how their access to healthcare and healthcare spending is at the top:
Women in developed countries have better access to contraceptives and more control over their reproductive choices, lowering birth rates. In the graph below, you can see that access to contraceptives is more prevalent in the developed countries, which keeps their fertility rates low:
Clean Water
Access to clean water varies between developed and developing countries. In general, developed countries have better access to clean drinking water.
Developing
Developing countries have higher rates of water-related diseases, such as diarrhea, cholera, typhoid, and hepatitis A, which are caused by unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene. Look at the graph below. You can see that for many of our developing countries, access to safe drinking water is below 50%!!!
Developed
The increased industrialization and GDP of developed countries allow them to spend more money on advanced and accessible water systems. They also have more policies, regulations, and institutions that manage and protect their water resources and quality. Look at the graph below. Most of our developed country exemplars have almost 100% access to clean drinking water:
Sanitation
Access to modern sanitation facilities varies between developed and developing countries. In general, developed countries have better access to modern sanitation facilities.
Developing
A larger percentage of the population lacks access to improved sanitation methods and clean water. Developing countries have higher rates of sanitation-related diseases, such as diarrhea, cholera, typhoid, and hepatitis A, which are caused by unsafe sanitation, hygiene, and water. This increases death rates, which, in turn, can cause increased birth rates, in developing countries. Look at the graph below. Most of our developing exemplars have less than 60% of their population using safely-managed sanitation facilities:
Developed
Developed countries have greater access to improved sanitation methods and clean water. The increased industrialization and GDP of developed countries allow them to spend more money on advanced and accessible sanitation systems than developing countries. They have more infrastructure, and services that provide clean and safe sanitation facilities. They also have more policies, regulations, and institutions that manage and protect their sanitation resources and quality. This decreases death rates in developed countries. In the graph below, you can see that in 2022, all of our developed exemplars had greater than 80% of their population using safely-managed sanitation facilities. Denmark even had close to 100%:
Education
Developing
Few individuals complete primary and secondary school in developing countries. Post-secondary education is rare. Look at the graph below. Our developing country with the most schooling has an average of 10.9 years of learning-adjusted schooling and the lowest has only 2.7 years of learning-adjusted schooling:
Even fewer women have access to educational opportunities. You can see in the graph below that as women increase the amount of education received, their fertility rate decreases. In most of our developing countries, however, they still have high fertility rates and low schooling for women:
If families are relying on children as workers, the birth rate is usually higher, because these families have more children for additional work.
Developed
The population is more educated and residents of these countries often place a higher value on education because their population tends to have careers that require more schooling. Look at the graph below. All of our developed exemplars have at least 10 years of learning-adjusted schooling:
Women are more educated, making them more likely to contribute to the workforce, which often results in delaying childbirth. You can see in the graph below that our developed countries started with lower fertility rates and higher levels of female education and have continued to increase their education for women, decreasing their fertility rates:
Now, explore the interactive below to see how child mortality rates decline as countries become more developed and gain access to modern healthcare, sanitation, and clean water:
Characteristics of developing countries include higher infant mortality rates and more children in the workforce than developed countries.
You should be able to draw the crude birth rate and death rate curves for the four phases of the Demographic Transition from memory. You should know which stage(s) are considered developing and which is considered developed.
You should know the differences between developed and developing countries and what the "typical" age-structure" diagrams look like for each.
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