POP: Lesson - The Demographic Transition (Topic 3.9) šŸ“–

ā³ Estimated Reading/Watching Time: 9 - 11 minutes

Learning Objective

Define the demographic transition.

 

The Demographic Transition


The demographic transition is a gradual shift in birth and death rates from the primitive (pre-developing) to the modern condition (developed) in industrialized societies.

The demographic transition model illustrates how a country's population changes with economic and social development across five stages. The graph features curves for birth rate, death rate, and natural increase plotted against these stages. Each stage has distinct characteristics and is depicted with a population pyramid showing age and sex distribution.
The demographic transition model combines our knowledge of birth rates, growth rates, age-structure pyramids with our knowledge of social and economic characteristics of populations to predict and describe the process a human goes through on the way to becoming a developed country.

This illustration shows 5 stages, but stage 5 is a prediction - we have not yet seen a country in stage 5 of the demographic transition, so for the purpose of our study, we will focus on stages 1-4.

 

Essential Knowledge

The demographic transition refers to the transition from high to lower birth and death rates in a country or region as development occurs and that country moves from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system.

 

Please explore the interactive below to learn more about the first four stages of the demographic transition. Where do you think the United States falls on the demographic transition?

 

Essential Knowledge

The demographic transition is typically demonstrated through a four-state demographic transition model (DTM). 

 

Developing vs. Developed Countries


Developed countries are those countries that are highly developed, industrialized, and have high incomes. Developing countries consist of two different types of countries: underdeveloped and developing. Explore the tabs below to see how developed and developing countries differ in key aspects:

Income 

Developed countries are generally richer and more industrialized than developing countries. They have higher standards of living, education, and technology. Developing countries are generally poorer and less industrialized than developed countries.

Developing

Developing countries consist of two different types of countries: underdeveloped and developing. 

Underdeveloped countries have per capita incomes of less than $765.  Examples of low-income countries are Niger, Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Chad, Ethiopia, and Papua New Guinea. Around 1.3 billion people live in these countries.  These countries are 37% of the global population, but only 3% of the wealth. People in these countries tend to not be very well educated and the birth rates tend to be high, and the death rates tend to be high as well. 

In developing countries, the per capita income is between $766 and $9385.  Forty-five percent of people in developing countries are unable to afford adequate food, shelter, or clothing.  About 4.25 billion people, or over half of the people on the planet, live in moderately developed countries.  Examples of middle-income countries are Mexico, Russia, Brazil, China, the Philippines, Chile, and Saudi Arabia. These countries have characteristics in between high- and low-income countries.

The graph below shows the life expectancy vs. GDP of several of these countries from 1990 to 2021. You can see that China's per capita GDP increased from $1424 to $17,603 in that time, which increased their life expectancy by almost 10 years.

These countries have high birth rates which translate into high fertility rates (average: 2.8).  The high birth rates and death rates also mean that these populations have shorter doubling times.  In fact, 98% of population growth is occurring in developing countries. The graph below shows the relationship between birth and death rate in these countries from 1950 to 2021:

Developed

Developed countries are those countries that are highly developed, industrialized, and have high incomes. Countries are considered developed if they have a per capita income of $9386 or greater. Examples of developed countries are the United States, Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland and Germany. Just over 1 billion people live in developed countries. These countries are 15% of the global population but 80% of the wealth. You can see in the graph below that these countries are at the very top of the per capita GDP, and tend to have higher life expectancies as well:

People in these countries tend to be more educated, and thus, have lower birth rates and death rates. These low birth rates translate to low fertility rates (average: 1.6) as well. These low birth and death rates translate into longer doubling times. The graph below shows the relationship between birth and death rate in these countries from 1950 to 2021. You can see that the birth and death rates for the developed countries have stayed near the bottom of the graph during this time:

 

Now, explore the interactive below to see how child mortality rates decline as countries become more developed and gain access to modern healthcare, sanitation, and clean water:

Essential Knowledge

Characteristics of developing countries include higher infant mortality rates and more children in the workforce than developed countries.

 

AP Exam Tip

You should be able to draw the crude birth rate and death rate curves for the four phases of the Demographic Transition from memory. You should know which stage(s) are considered developing and which is considered developed.

You should know the differences between developed and developing countries and what the "typical" age-structure" diagrams look like for each.

 

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