APIB - Public Opinion and Voting Lesson

Public Opinion and Voting

Public Opinion Polls"How much can ordinary citizens actually know and do to influence the decisions that ultimately shape their lives and futures?" -H. J. Reynolds

There are many groups out there that conduct public opinion polls. Lots of people are interested in finding out how the public feels about many and varied topics. It's important to find out a few things in order to determine whether the poll is scientific or unscientific, which means it's much more reliable.

 

Voting Patterns

In order to understand why people vote, you must first look at the potential makeup of the American electorate. Demographic patterns are determined every ten years when the census is conducted. Besides establishing representation patterns, the census also provides important information related to the populations:

  • Age
  • Socioeconomic makeup
  • Place of residence and shifting population movement
  • Ethnic makeup

Once this demographic study is evaluated, certain things become obvious. The impact of immigrants has been a key factor in the nation's population increase. When you look at immigration patterns, historically, you will see that there have been three distinctive immigrant trends affecting population patterns:

What are the factors that make people decide to cast their vote for a particular candidate? They can be classified in two major categories, sociological and psychological. Sociological factors include income and occupation, education, sex and age, religious and ethnic background, region of the country where you live, and family makeup. Psychological factors include party affiliation and identification, perception of candidate's policies and/or image, and the feeling that your vote will make a statement.

Based on these factors the following statements about who votes, what party those who vote lean toward, and who doesn't vote can be made.

What factors decide how you cast your vote? Family, Income, Gender and Age, Education, Religion, Ethnicity, Where you live, Party Affiliation, Perception of policies, occupation, or impact of the vote.INCOME AND OCCUPATION: Voters who are in the lower income brackets and laborers tend to vote Democratic. Those upper-middle to upper income level voters, many of whom are business and professional white-collar workers, tend to vote Republican. Yet when you compare voting rates of both groups, you will see that citizens with higher income and greater education vote in greater numbers than those with lower incomes and less education. This is the number one factor in what determines voter turnout. This pattern held true in the 1976-1996 presidential elections.

GENDER: Voting patterns do not usually correlate strongly with gender. Analysts suggest there is a gender gap in national politics, a significant deviation between the way men and women vote. In addition, there is no guarantee that even if a woman ran for national office, she would get the women's vote. With Geraldine Ferraro on the 1984 Democratic ticket, more women still voted more for the Reagan-Bush ticket, proving that women did not vote just because there was a woman running for vice president. However, since 1988 a trend has developed where women vote for Democratic candidates in greater percentages than men. This was particularly true in the 1994 midterm election when polls showed that "angry white" voters heavily supported Republican candidates, whereas women still supported Democratic candidates. Yet in 1996, because for the first time the male vote was split almost 50-50 between Clinton and Dole, women voted for Clinton by more than 10%.

AGE: The youth vote is undergoing a major change. Ever since the Twenty-Sixth Amendment was passed, political parties wanted to capture the young voter. Even though they seem to vote more Democratic than Republican (with the exception of youth supporting Reagan and Bush), the fact remains that they have voted in much lower numbers than other groups. From 1976 to 1988, for instance, the turnout among the youngest voters, those 18-20 years old, was less than 40% of the eligible voters. In 1992 and 1996 elections, MTV ran a "Choose or Lose" campaign resulting in an increased enrollment and turnout of the young voters.

RELIGIOUS AND ETHNIC BACKGROUND: Religious and ethnic background highly influence voter choice and voter turnout. Dating back to the early days of immigration, Catholics and Jews tend to vote Democratic (Republicans traditionally supported anti-immigration legislation), whereas northern Protestants tend to vote Republican. Strongly affiliated religious groups also tend to vote in general elections compared to those people who don't identify themselves as being closely connected to a religion. Minority groups, although voting heavily for Democratic candidates, do not turn out as much as white voters. Jesse Jackson and his Rainbow Coalition, minority groups of "color" rallying around the causes espoused by Jackson, have been attempting to increase minority registration and voter turnout. Minority groups are a fertile field for political parties to pursue.

GEOGRAPHY: Historically, geography has dictated a voter preference. The South voted solidly Democratic after the Civil War. However, the solid South has become much more conservative. They vote Republican more on the national level, continue to vote Democratic in local elections, but it is sometimes hard to tell the difference because of ideology. Comparing voter turnout, proportionally, Northerners vote in greater numbers than Southerners. This difference is explained by large number of minority voters who are still not registered. New England and Sunbelt voters tend to vote Republican, whereas the big industrial states, especially in the big cities, lean to the Democrats but are considered toss-ups in close presidential elections.

SPECIALIZED GROUP: In terms of a specialized group, government workers turn out in large numbers because, for many of them, their jobs depend on and are affected by who is elected.

PARTY AFFILATION: Even though party identification plays a key role in determining voter choice and voter turnout, more and more people are registering independent. There is a greater overall Democratic registration, but voters tend to respond more to the individual candidate and issues, along with the sociological factors, than just party identification alone.

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