SCI - The Need for Psychological Science Lesson

Learning Targets:

• Discuss how cognitive biases like hindsight bias, overconfidence, and the perception of patterns in random events demonstrate the reliability of scientific explanations over common sense.
• Analyze the role of cognitive biases, including hindsight bias, overconfidence, and the perception of order in randomness, in validating the superiority of scientific reasoning over intuitive judgment.

Courtesy of the AP psychology course and exam description, effective fall 2024. (n.d.). Links to an external site.

The Need for Psychological Science

Critical thinking is an essential part of understanding things scientifically and making better decisions every day. Critical thinking in psychology involves analyzing and evaluating information to make informed decisions. It includes components such as distinguishing between subjective and objective thinking, recognizing biases and prejudices, employing logical reasoning, evaluating scientific evidence, and considering multiple perspectives. Critical thinking in psychology allows individuals to think critically about their own thoughts, beliefs, and behaviors, leading to a better understanding of themselves and others. Sure, sometimes our gut feelings are right because we're all pretty good at noticing how people behave. Many things we learn in psychology seem obvious, like how feeling loved makes us happy, since all of us need to connect with others.

However, when we examine psychology closely, we realize that common sense is not always the best approach. When we study carefully and examine the facts carefully, we find that some things we thought were true, such as "the more you know someone, the less you like them," aren't true. We also learn that some common myths, like the idea that dreams can tell the future or that we only use 10% of our brains, need to be backed up by science. Learning about the brain, how animals think and feel, and how things like social media affect our mood, allows us to gain a new perspective on the world and ourselves.

Exploring Cognitive Biases and Scientific Reasoning

Cognitive biases, such as hindsight bias, overconfidence, and the perception of patterns in random events, highlight the importance of relying on scientific explanations over common sense. 

Hindsight Bias

Hindsight bias, for example, involves the tendency to believe that we knew the outcome of an event all along, especially after learning the actual result. This bias is commonly observed in situations like Monday morning quarterbacking or post-election analyses, where individuals retroactively believe they predicted the outcome, even if that wasn't the case then. Such biases demonstrate the limitations of common sense in accurately predicting events before they unfold.

For instance, when students face a challenging math test and express uncertainty about their performance beforehand, they may exhibit hindsight bias if they later claim they were always confident of acing the test. This phenomenon reveals how individuals reconstruct their memories after an event to align with the known outcome. These cognitive errors emphasize the need for scientific research to provide reliable explanations, as common sense tends to explain events better in hindsight rather than predict them accurately in advance.

Overconfidence

Cognitive biases, such as overconfidence, play a significant role in shaping our decision-making processes. Overconfidence occurs when we believe we know more or are more capable than we truly are. For instance, in the financial world, overestimating the success of a stock market investment before thorough research can lead to financial losses. Similarly, overestimating our ability to accurately predict the weather forecast can result in being unprepared for sudden changes in weather conditions.

Overconfidence highlights the importance of relying on empirical evidence and rigorous methodology rather than intuition or commonly held beliefs when it comes to scientific explanations versus common sense. Scientific explanations are grounded in systematic observation, experimentation, and peer review processes, which help minimize cognitive biases like overconfidence. By emphasizing the importance of evidence-based reasoning over unchecked assumptions, scientific explanations demonstrate their reliability in providing more accurate and trustworthy insights into the world around us.

Perceiving Order in Random Events

Humans often perceive patterns where none actually exist, a phenomenon known as the perception of order in random events. This cognitive bias arises because our brains are wired to seek connections and make sense of the world around us, even when no real connections are present. For example, if you've ever thought that "good things come in threes" or seen a "winning streak" in your favorite video game, you've experienced this bias. This tendency can lead to erroneous conclusions and affect our judgment, making us believe in false causes or predictability in purely random situations. In AP Psychology, understanding this bias helps explain why people might rely on superstitions or make incorrect assumptions about causality in everyday life.

 

 

 

[CC BY 4.0] UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED | IMAGES: LICENSED AND USED ACCORDING TO TERMS OF SUBSCRIPTION